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Putting the Ability Back in Vulnerability
Vulnerability is a useful concept only if it is used to enable a dynamic analysis of the effects of change on populations. Change is part and parcel of rural and urban poverty. In the context of an ever-decreasing resource base, understanding how people will (or will not) be able to cope with both the expected changes, such as seasonal variability and the unexpected or unpredictable shocks, such as major policy changes, conflict, floods, and droughts, is absolutely essential to the task of early warning. Properly defining and placing ‘vulnerability’ within the analytical framework used to provide early warning is fundamental to this task.
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